Outlook 2026: Peter van der Welle (Robeco)
This text was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.
By Peter van der Welle, Multi-Asset Strategist, Robeco
Where are the greatest opportunities and threats for 2026?
'According to our two outlooks for 2026, ‘The synchronised shift’ and ‘Holding the note’, the greatest opportunities lie in a rare but short-lived global economic upturn. This will be driven by easing trade tensions, a recovering manufacturing industry and the delayed effects of monetary easing. In the baseline scenario, the US economy grows by 2.1%, supported by AI-driven productivity gains and fiscal stimulus. The eurozone will benefit from fiscal expansion and the utilisation of savings surpluses, while China may experience a domestic recovery in the second half of 2026. For investors, this offers opportunities in stock markets outside the US, in emerging markets due to a weaker dollar, and in thematic investments in climate adaptation, clean energy and responsible use of AI. The green bond market also continues to develop.
On the other hand, there are clear threats. The expected recovery will be short-lived, so flexibility remains crucial. In the bear scenario, there is a threat of a bursting AI bubble, rising unemployment and a mild recession in the US. Geopolitical uncertainties and policy dilemmas for central banks – balancing political pressure and a high-pressure economy – are increasing volatility.
Meanwhile, climate-related physical risks are already having a measurable economic impact, stimulating the growth of transition-focused sustainable investment funds and financing through green bonds. Although sustainable investing currently faces challenges such as weak inflows, political polarisation and unclear regulations, the long-term trend towards sustainability remains intact. In 2026, tough choices and robust risk management will be necessary.
In short: 2026 offers opportunities for those who respond to cyclical growth and sustainability themes, but requires vigilance in the face of temporary dynamics and structural risks.'
2026 offers opportunities for those who respond to cyclical growth and sustainability themes.