Trend towards thematic ETFs continues (roundtable ‘New Developments in ETFs’ part 4)

February 4, 2026

_{This report was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

Part 4 of the roundtable ‘New Developments in ETFs’ focuses on sustainability and prospects. The experts discuss the role of ESG in active ETFs, the debate on defence exposure within SFDR, and outline the key trends for the coming year, from high-conviction strategies to crypto and thematic ETFs.

By Hans Amesz

This is part 4 of the report. You can read part 1 here, part 2 here, and part 3 here.

How important are ESG considerations in the development of active ETFs?

Kevric: ‘We systematically integrate sustainability considerations into everything we manage. So regardless of the type of ETF, we conduct exactly the same research as we do for any other financial instrument. It is simply part of the investment process in our company.’

Brouwer: ‘The reason we launched our first active ETF was to be able to include ESG in a portfolio that can at least replicate the MSCI World. It is important to us that we have products that meet ESG requirements.’

Bialkowski: ‘ESG plays an important role for us, including in the development of active ETFs. Even for clients who do not explicitly invest sustainably, we apply basic filters, such as excluding controversial weapons and tobacco. This ensures a minimum ESG standard on our platform.’

Sguazzini: ‘There are major differences between the US and Europe when it comes to sustainability. Within Europe, there are also different nuances: Scandinavian countries, for example, are ‘dark green’, while Southern European markets are slightly less advanced. Many clients have formulated a kind of basic standard for sustainability. There are different markets, but the ability to offer solutions that can be formulated and integrated, or that are already sustainable, is the path we have chosen.’

Hutcheson: ‘For us, ESG considerations are fundamental. Some investors may want their investments to be aligned with certain climate goals. It is our responsibility to think carefully about this in terms of how we implement the portfolios.’

Given the increasing demand from investors for exposure to conventional weapons – especially in light of current geopolitical circumstances – ETF providers are considering adjustments to their SFDR Article 8 funds to allow for this exposure, while maintaining exclusions for controversial weapons and other sensitive sectors such as tobacco.

Bialkowski: ‘We are now seeing ESG funds also excluding conventional weapons, although that is not a requirement for us. It is important to us that funds do not have exposure to controversial weapons. Our regular clients are allowed to invest in conventional weapons and we are even seeing that they increasingly want insight into their exposure in that area. At the same time, we note that there are very few SFDR 8 funds that do invest in conventional weapons.’

Kevric: ‘Is there a threshold applied to conventional weapons?’

Bialkowski: ‘It is indeed important to have a clear definition of what is conventional or controversial.’

Hout: ‘The SFDR framework basically allows for the inclusion of weapons. In addition, the latest update states that defence companies can in certain cases be included as a sustainable form of investment from a social point of view. This means that fund providers must be able to adjust their sustainability policy if clients want to include defence companies in their portfolios. And, as with the more passive approach, many funds simply follow what the benchmark provider does. If there is sufficient interest in the market for the inclusion of certain types of conventional weapons, the benchmark can be adjusted.’

Sguazzini: ‘It is true that conventional weapons were not among the mandatory exclusions, but we are seeing a clear shift in client preferences with regard to this sector. Inflows and even product launches have been very strong since the beginning of the year. We remain in dialogue with clients to ensure that our exclusion frameworks are up to date and we monitor very carefully that controversial weapons are not included in our portfolio.’

What relevant trends can be expected in the coming year for investors using ETFs?

Hout: ‘Fund houses respond to investor preferences: when demand increases for less strictly screened investment products – for example, because investors do not want additional tracking error or exposure to defence companies – fund houses will respond to this. Perhaps a stricter ESG direction will be taken, in which case more sustainable products will come onto the market. It all depends on what investors want.’

Sguazzini: ‘We expect strong growth in active ETFs, especially in fixed income and income-focused products. More than half of the new fixed income ETFs are active, and the world's largest ETF is a derivatives income strategy. We expect these segments to grow significantly.’

Hutcheson: ‘There will be many new players entering the active ETF market, and we expect this to lead to considerable diversity of strategies within the active segment. This will not only involve active strategies with low tracking errors, which have been very successful so far. There will be active strategies with more conviction, which are likely to be semi-transparent. As ETFs perhaps become the instrument of choice, I think we will also see more diversity in the area of derivatives. In the past, the use of derivatives for investment purposes in ETFs may not have been so acceptable, but that now seems to be changing.’

Brouwer: ‘Now is a good time to invest in ETFs. This is evident from a few asset flows for the EMEA region. In September 2024, EMEA flows amounted to $147 billion, and at the beginning of October this year, that figure was $272 billion. Our focus is on active ETFs, mainly because they are new and still need a lot of education. Over the next twelve months, we will continue to focus primarily on core allocations of beta, commodities and the like. It is an exciting time to be in ETFs. A lot is going to happen.’

Kevric: ‘If you look at cross-border assets, 38% of total assets are already in ETFs, which represents enormous growth compared to five years ago, when we were at 25%, which was already a lot. If you look specifically at the growth of active ETFs, you can speak of exponential growth compared to last year. We expect to see more demand in the high conviction segment. Investors are generally looking for the right balance between traditional funds and all the advantages of ETFs, and that is exactly what they will find in that domain.’

Bialkowski: ‘Thematic ETFs were already popular this year and this trend is sure to continue in the coming year. We are also getting more and more questions about crypto ETFs.’

Kevric: ‘There is a lot of demand for crypto. We have two separate companies: the American and the international. In the US, we were one of the first managers to launch a Bitcoin instrument. In just a few months, we raised a billion.’

Bialkowski: ‘Our regular customers cannot yet invest in crypto ETFs with us, but I can imagine that this will become possible in the future, at the request of customers. I am curious to see how investing in crypto ETFs will develop further at Dutch banks in the coming year. We will certainly discuss this again next year.’